Monday, July 29, 2013

P.S. AFL Power Rankings Round 18 2013 – More On North Melbourne’s ‘Improvement’


In this week’s AFL Power Rankings, I pointed out that the ranking system rated North Melbourne as the 3rd most improved team so far in 2013, despite the Kangaroos going backwards on the actual AFL ladder. Below is a summary of North Melbourne’s performance in every game so far in 2013, ordered from best performance to worst. Performances are rated by North Melbourne’s relative adjusted net margin for the game, which is North’s net margin, adjusted for home ground advantage and the relative strength of the opposition. (For example, North’s win on the weekend against Melbourne gets deflated by 51 points, while their win against Richmond gets inflated by 16 points.) I have also included the ranking points the Kangas get for each game as of Round 18, with more recent games getting a higher weighting. (For example, North’s win against Melbourne, though it was of slightly lesser quality in relative terms than the win against Richmond, currently gives them more ranking points because it was more recent.)

Relative net margin
Ranking points
Result
Rich
78
5.87
W
Melb
71
6.18
W
StK
59
3.48
W
Bris (1)
37
1.32
W
WB
25
1.19
W
Haw
25
0.98
L
Geel
22
0.62
L
WC
20
1.03
L
GWS
14
1.01
W
Carl
12
0.95
L
PA
2
0.09
W
Adel
-7
-0.37
L
Fre
-7
-0.49
L
Coll
-11
-0.26
L
Syd
-14
-0.43
L
Bris (2)
-14
-1.09
L
GC
-19
-1.21
L
Total ranking points
18.86
Average relative net margin
17

As I said on the weekend, the Kangaroos have got most of their points from three games, which are their wins against Richmond, Melbourne and St. Kilda. All their other performances gain them only a few more ranking points. (They still have a small penalty from their last five games of 2012.) But note that their very good performances have not been balanced out by some very bad ones. (North was also assessed to have the hardest draw in 2013, but relative net margin adjusts for that, and in any case they have only played Brisbane twice at this point.) Now compare this with North’s ranking points at the end of 2012. (Net margins are adjusted by how strong the teams were in 2012, and North’s first game against Essendon drops out of the final ranking for 2012, with their final against West Coast included.) 

Relative net margin
Ranking points
Result
GWS (1)
63
0.25
W
Carl
61
3.37
W
StK
54
2.58
W
Coll
44
3.31
W
Adel
43
1.89
W
Geel
29
0.23
W
Ess
25
1.77
W
WB (2)
20
1.35
W
Melb
19
1.21
W
Rich
16
0.93
W
WC (2)
14
0.72
L
WC (1)
3
0.06
L
Syd
-1
-0.01
L
Bris
-5
-0.14
W
PA
-11
-0.31
L
GC (1)
-24
-0.38
W
GWS (2)
-26
-2.13
W
GC (2)
-27
-1.06
W
Fre
-51
-4.05
L
WB (1)
-52
-1.23
L
WC (F)
-68
-5.92
L
Haw
-77
-2.74
L
Total ranking points
-0.31
Average relative net margin
2

North still had some very good performances in 2012. But they also had some terrible performances, including the ‘Buddy Game’ in Hobart, their thrashing in the finals against the Eagles, a thrashing by the Dockers in Melbourne, and a loss against the Bulldogs (which wasn’t by much, but it’s bad because it was against ‘weak’ opposition). Indeed, their seven worst performances in 2012 were worse than their worst performance so far in 2013.
Thus, North’s improvement according to the ranking system is because they have eliminated their bad losses and other weak performances. Alas, for Kangaroos supporters, because of several close losses, this hasn’t translated to an improvement on the ladder.  

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